Profil
-
While I see further Dollar gains I think they’re limited now…
pred 175 dnevi | Komentar
Oh.Well, yesterday’s moves were obviously not in the forefront of my mind yesterday. The Dollar downtrend was definitely the underlying risk but the combo-action of both EURUSD declining simultaneously with USDJPY was just spectacular. I had written in the weekly review last weekend that I thought we’d see losses and highlighted the 139.30 area in GBPJPY but I had begun to think it was going to take on a few more twists and turns before reaching this target.However, now that it has along with AUDJPY finding a low close to its old lows and EURJPY that appears to have ended a move lower also the implication is for a sizeable recovery. I can’t say there are many signals to suggest this but spike bottoms tend to occur without these.Consequently this has interesting implications for USDJPY and EURUSD… Frankly I think we’re getting to a significant low in EURUSD. I am even considering suggesting it could be a very, very significant low. However, just for now I’ll just concentrate on some levels not too far below yesterday’s lows where I think we could see a reversal.Now, with the fact that I still see USDJPY lower – down to 86.90-00 approx – this does suggest quite a solid reversal for EURUSD. Indeed, looking at the daily charts the Dollar’s decline has begun to show signs of slowing with mild Dollar bullish divergences in the daily charts. In addition, around the 1.3652 and 1.3576-92 areas we are facing some major projection targets. In USDCHF these are at 1.0727-61 and maximum 1.0820.It’s Non Farm Payrolls tonight so the potential is there. While it would be very risky anticipating this eventuality it will be useful to have this in your minds…Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+320 pips).Have a great weekendFor MT4 users -
It looks like this Dollar correction is going to last longer…
pred 176 dnevi | Komentar
Those Dollar supports… well, they didn’t last long… In some ways I am more comfortable with the developments as they tend to fit in better with some wave ratios and while the Dollar high has not yet been totally defined there is still room for another round of losses. From the start of trading this morning I feel the correction from yesterday’s push lower are complete (or very, very close to completion) and thus the coming day and into tomorrow should see some further corrective losses.And while GBPUSD also looks pretty bearish right now I feel there is a strong chance of a reversal back higher to those resistance levels seen yesterday. By next week we should be back in Dollar bullish mode.However, it seems as if USDJPY has surprised and is already in bullish mode and I feel that early trading could well see follow-through. I suspect it will not be sustainable today but the outlook could well get stronger either tomorrow or into next week. The only caveat I’ll put on that is that any drop below 90.70 would see a recycling of the correction back to 90.87-98…That in itself has implications for the JPY crosses but looking at these independently there does seem some risk of sideways consolidation. These will take some managing and probably better left untouched until a stronger signal is generated.Equally, while I have been bullish on USDCAD and it bounced almost perfectly from support yesterday, we do need a rapid follow-through higher or it will end in tears on a break below yesterday’s lows…Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+100 pips).Good luckFor MT4 users -
We are approaching what I feel may be important Dollar supports…
pred 177 dnevi | Komentar
Well, yesterday was not a day to write home about… or maybe time to write home as there was little going on in the market with tight & messy range trading failing to generate many opportunities. If I get any fairly constant message it is that we’re close to key Dollar support levels. I feel they’ll hold and we’ll see a frustrated market get tired of waiting and reunite themselves with the Dollar bullish view.So take note of the Dollar support levels I shall highlight in the report today. Even if I’m wrong in looking for Dollar to resume its rally I feel these levels are a key pivotal area and if they break then we should see a modestly strong follow-through. Either way there are pips to be made around these levels I feel…USDJPY has failed to lie down and die. The pattern that seems to be developing could well be an ascending triangle that will keep it within yesterday’s range, a cap expected once again at 90.90-95. However, once it reached there and pulls back this should be the final dip so be prepared to buy the subsequent break higher… If it fails and moves below yesterday’s low then expect follow-through lower.The strength here, as well as the strength in EURUSD, has dragged the JPY crosses higher. The entire structure at these lower levels has become a bit messy. Certainly, if they manage to take out some highs they could get stronger still. However, I do also see risk of another dip lower. What we shall need to look for here is the reaction in EURUSD and AUDUSD in particular. I am more conservative about GBPUSD and thus the cross could behave differently.We’re also back close to the critical 1.0548-56 support in USDCAD and this too appears to be a critical pivotal area. While it holds we can still visit 1.0784… If it fails then it’s doomed to losses back to 1.0205-23…Take care today and make sure that moves between the straight Dollar-Currency pairs are aligned with those of the JPY crosses…Today’s free analysis is for USDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+110 pips).Good luckFor MT4 users -
For now I feel the Dollar pullback lower can continue but take care…
pred 178 dnevi | Komentar
I closed yesterday’s outlook by suggesting: “Thus, I feel the day could have potential for some early whips, maybe even some minor new Dollar highs, but then settle back into a trading range…” This proved more immediately correct that I had considered. However, we do therefore appear to be in a correction back lower but I’ll take my cue from USDCHF this time which remains with support in the 1.0526-53 area. Ideally this should remain supportive and trigger further Dollar gains.This should equate to resistance around the 1.3950-81 area EURUSD. I’ll add that there appears to be a trend resistance around current levels in EURUSD but I’m rather wary of this since it doesn’t seem to adhere to the correct requirements to be a valid trend line. Therefore, take care with what you read elsewhere.I’ll also add at this point that there are some rather loose wave relationships around and this is causing some doubts of exactly what is happening. Therefore it may well be beneficial to look at the JPY crosses. These appear to have found an intermediate low and have some fairly deep corrective targets. This may also imply USDJPY could rally as it failed once again on the downside yesterday and this has upset my basic bearish stance. However, it does seem to have potential to drag the crosses higher if it breaks above the 90.94-98 area. Until then the first move for the crosses appears to be lower.The underlying message today is that we appear to be in a corrective section of the wave structure and this has the potential added complication of choppy price action. However, this should mean that we’re going to have to try and coordinate the moves in the JPY crosses with the straight Dollar-currency pairs.I’d even add (and I don’t think I see this happening) that considering EURUSD has not broken below the deepest retracement at 1.3820, USDCHF has not broken above 1.0667 and GBPUSD below 1.5832 that this still does not confirm Dollar gains and leaves a small window of opportunity for a shock reversal lower. It doesn’t look likely but as a caveat it is worth noting…Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s Trader Package Review & trade Set up report (+280 pips).Good luckFor MT4 users -
I stick now with the underlying Dollar bullish view but the day’s outlook is unclear…
pred 179 dnevi | Komentar
Friday was a mixed bag, a bullish day for the Dollar overall as expected and hit targets in EURUSD (just below to 1.3857 this morning) and to 2 pips below the 1.0641 resistance in USDCHF. In the process it has pushed momentum to extremes and this suggests there should be further gains to come…That’s just about as precise as I can get at this point… The problem I had this morning was finding a structure where the wave relationships worked – and across the entire decline from 1.4578 EURUSD… If there is any common ground then it may well be for a mildly deeper pullback although I can see conflicts even with this. Therefore I think it’s going to have to be a day when we watch for breaks levels again… as frustrating as that may be…However, the clear picture is that the Dollar remains with a more bullish sentiment and this should be kept in mind. Fighting recent gains has not borne much fruit and there doesn’t appear to be any obvious reversal signals…Two currencies that push me more to a Dollar pullback are GBPUSD and AUDUSD, both of which opened with a rush lower this morning but which both seemed to find support areas that suggest a correction higher should be due soon. The immediate uncertainty is whether there will be one more dip before the recovery becomes stronger.Also, note the JPY crosses that appear to have developed some short term risk of a pullback higher which tends to slot in with a Dollar correction lower also.Thus, I feel the day could have potential for some early whips, maybe even some minor new Dollar highs, but then settle back into a trading range…Today’s free analysis is for GBUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+95 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.Have a profitable weekFor MT4 users -
I think I’m Dollar bullish… but don’t see strong follow-through today…
pred 182 dnevi | Komentar
The bounce from 1.3935 EURUSD may have been from one of my targets but if it was to turn into something stronger I think it would have held and this morning we’ve seen that support break. So all eyes are now on the next supports but I don’t really see much prospect of significant Dollar gains today. I’ll outline the resistance levels to watch out for in the individual analyses today from where I anticipate a pullback.Once this pullback is completed I’d anticipate the bearish flag target in EURUSD to be met next week – even if it’s a week late – around the 1.3652 area – and that should equate to either 1.0727 in USDCHF or a small risk of 1.0813… This should keep the downward pressure on GBPUSD but I don’t think we’ll get a break below the 1.5832 low… That’s a bit touch & go depending on how the entire correction develops.However, this should also impact on the JPY crosses, all looking bearish, but again limited in the short term. There will probably be a bit of messy consolidation once the lows have been reached as we face USDJPY still in an overall downtrend but risking a near term consolidation within the 89.13-90.54 range.AUDUSD is facing some key support levels too while USDCAD has some overhead resistance around 1.0784-94 and maximum 1.0841. Thus the bigger picture is tending to slot in with each other.Thus, for today, take care of the current follow-through in the Dollar. Watch for some bearish trade ste ups that should trigger a correction into Monday and possibly Tuesday before the next legs higher…Today’s free analysis is for AUDJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+85 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.Have a great weekendFor MT4 users -
The Dollar is rallying but making hard work of it…
pred 183 dnevi | Komentar
There seems to be an unholy battle between Dollar bulls & bears and from a few discussions I’ve seen this is representative of the two camps in the debate. At the end of the day something’s going to give way or the other. Without a doubt, once the debate is settled there will be a strong movement and to anticipate the sort of implications I’d go for 1.57-1.60 EURUSD if the Dollar resumes its losses but if it extends its rally through 1.3898 and 1.3820 then I’d go for around 1.26-1.27… so it should be a decisive moment.At the moment, while I’m rather unsettled about the momentum picture which hasn’t yet screamed from the roof that there is going to be a reversal lower in the Dollar, the picture I still have is a move through to around 1.3898 EURUSD and 1.0609 and possibly 1.0641-67 USDCHF. The picture in GBPUSD is a little mixed but even that could do with one more dip.What is just a little confusing is the path it will take to get towards these targets… and then, assuming I’m correct, we’ll have to assess the momentum picture then. Certainly the wave structure has become pretty choppy and just a bit difficult to get a clear picture of the approach and thus it’s probably going to be easier to watch the Dollar resistance levels when they come.Success was seen in USDJPY which bounced from 5 pips above the 89.08 support. I still feel this is just a correction and we’ll see losses develop once the correction is complete. This is being reflected in the JPY crosses which themselves had been losing their way in the decline. Again, as far as I can see there are still losses to come in the crosses and these could be quite substantial but today I feel we have a day when we’ll see them recover a little more in a correction before the next leg lower.The Aussie still seems to have a little way to go but watch the 0.8860-80 area while AUDJPY probably has further to go to 79.25 and maybe even 78.83 once USDJPY resumes its losses. This may well provide USDCAD with the opportunity to follow-through to the 1.0747-84 area…Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+40 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.Good luckFor MT4 users -
The Dollar is rallying but making hard work of it…
pred 183 dnevi | Komentar
There seems to be an unholy battle between Dollar bulls & bears and from a few discussions I’ve seen this is representative of the two camps in the debate. At the end of the day something’s going to give way or the other. Without a doubt, once the debate is settled there will be a strong movement and to anticipate the sort of implications I’d go for 1.57-1.60 EURUSD if the Dollar resumes its losses but if it extends its rally through 1.3898 and 1.3820 then I’d go for around 1.26-1.27… so it should be a decisive moment.At the moment, while I’m rather unsettled about the momentum picture which hasn’t yet screamed from the roof that there is going to be a reversal lower in the Dollar, the picture I still have is a move through to around 1.3898 EURUSD and 1.0609 and possibly 1.0641-67 USDCHF. The picture in GBPUSD is a little mixed but even that could do with one more dip.What is just a little confusing is the path it will take to get towards these targets… and then, assuming I’m correct, we’ll have to assess the momentum picture then. Certainly the wave structure has become pretty choppy and just a bit difficult to get a clear picture of the approach and thus it’s probably going to be easier to watch the Dollar resistance levels when they come.Success was seen in USDJPY which bounced from 5 pips above the 89.08 support. I still feel this is just a correction and we’ll see losses develop once the correction is complete. This is being reflected in the JPY crosses which themselves had been losing their way in the decline. Again, as far as I can see there are still losses to come in the crosses and these could be quite substantial but today I feel we have a day when we’ll see them recover a little more in a correction before the next leg lower.The Aussie still seems to have a little way to go but watch the 0.8860-80 area while AUDJPY probably has further to go to 79.25 and maybe even 78.83 once USDJPY resumes its losses. This may well provide USDCAD with the opportunity to follow-through to the 1.0747-84 area…Today’s free analysis is for GBPJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+40 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.Good luckFor MT4 users -
Creaking on the edge…
pred 184 dnevi | Komentar
It was always unlikely that the market would choose a direct follow-through lower to confirm a larger reversal. However, it hasn’t broken the recent Dollar highs either and thus we are overall left in no-man’s land awaiting a break. Indeed, the weak bullish divergence I had pointed out in the daily EURUSD chart has become even weaker with yesterday’s decline and the next two days will see solid gains fall out of the equation and that will threaten a push lower in momentum. Therefore, if the divergence is to be preserved as it is now we’ll need the Dollar to head lower quite promptly from now…Never say never… but somehow it looks unlikely. I was trying to find a clear consistent indication across the European currencies but frankly they are all reflecting the same situation and from short term momentum I have to say that the Dollar looks more bullish than bearish. In addition the JPY crosses all look pretty soft. I have to say the structure there is really quite complicated right now but the weakness was the stronger impression. While I can see some of that coming from USDJPY, like yesterday, it was a combination of both sides of the cross constituents.However, since we are at a critical pivotal point in the wave structure we should keep our minds open to anything and I’ll detail the break areas on both sides. Even if the Dollar does rally today I can’t see it following through the additional 400 pips in three days to reach the daily bearish flag target and I still see support in EURUSD around 1.39 which could see USDCHF reach 1.0609 so I feel we should control any excessive bullishness at this point.So the basic message today is once again be more cautious but take note of break levels and implications.Today’s free analysis is for USDCAD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+120 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.Good luckFor MT4 users -
So far the Dollar has refused to rally…
pred 185 dnevi | Komentar
The market’s enthusiasm has been less than enthralling. We now have 4 days for the daily bearish flag to extend losses by another 500 pips, two days of a fledgling daily bullish divergence and a test of the maximum retracement in EURUSD at 1.4192… Will it break… won’t it break…To be honest it’s touch and go… but I don’t think so… quite yet…Move of the day came from GBPUSD which failed to extend losses but rebounded earlier than I thought it would. However, this has approached the 1.6283 swing high and I have doubts that it will break directly. Thus, I feel EURUSD will back off from 1.4192 as well. Let’s see how it goes as the situation in both GBPUSD and EURUSD remains a little fluid and even in the former I can’t rule out another low below 1.6076.Hence I am slightly more biased to the Dollar upside today and we’ll have to see how this develops to judge whether it provides a pullback only or a final push to those lower levels I mentioned yesterday. However, the confidence that we will not see the bearish flag target approached is growing and more the focus for me will be on how momentum develops – will the fledgling bullish divergence deepen or start declining again that would threaten the downside more…Of course, if I’m wrong on this Dollar bullish view the break levels remain at 1.4192 EURUSD, 1.6283 GBPUSD and 1.0362-73 USDCHF… If these break the larger Dollar downside becomes a growing risk…Elsewhere USDJPY has failed to make any decision at all. There is still room for a small additional move higher and yet still remain within a bearish structure. Possibly this will dovetail with what happens in the Europeans. However, the JPY crosses were stronger than I had anticipated but with GBPJPY close to the 147.21 swing high any breach would extend the gains just a little more. I still feel this should be more affected by the anticipated weakness in GBPUSD with that 1.6283 swing high being the key resistance.AUDUSD remains in a sideways consolidation and this tends to keep it more on the defensive which is also similar to AUDJPY. It seems one of those crucial points where it should confirm a break one way or the other pretty soon – so follow breaks – and watch the implication in the crosses.Today’s free analysis is for EURJPY and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+75 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.Good luckFor MT4 users -
Stop the bus… I want to get off…
pred 189 dnevi | Komentar
In some ways yesterday was quite successful. I picked the top in USDJPY within 4 pips, EURUSD reversed from within the buy support area and USDCHF did move higher but didn’t quite meet my resistance and reversed… I could continue my argument that we should see a high in the Dollar. Indeed, nothing has gone particularly wrong with any of them in terms of daily retracements but yesterday’s developments elsewhere have been less than encouraging.The main currency upon which I had been basing some of my views – GBPUSD – crashed through supports and destroyed the structure I was watching. It gave me some good calls, but yesterday’s break really begins to make this look a lot more bearish. Coupled with the fact that momentum in EURUSD in particular is really looking shockingly bearish I have to place a lot more caution on the Dollar bearish scenario.In some ways we are still in a twilight zone between bullish & bearish and I don’t think it’s going to be totally one way traffic so we’ll have to retain an open mind now and react as developments occur. In fact, we must also be aware that we may just be seeing the second leg of a daily bearish flag in EURUSD and if that’s the case then retracements are going to be very limited indeed…The next point of concern is the JPY crosses which have also tumbled quite strongly. There are signs of a correction but we’ll have to keep our eyes on these also as they could drag the constituent currencies with them if they continue a sharp fall.Anyway, for today I think we’re going to see some corrections to the moves seen this morning and depending on when targets are met the danger of follow-through probably won’t occur until the second half of the day and may even hold off until Monday.Today’s free analysis is for EURUSD and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+110 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.Have a great weekendFor MT4 users -
The momentum behind the Dollar’s gains is strong but there are signs of slowing
pred 190 dnevi | Komentar
It’s a bit of a strange market right now. One look at EURUSD and it’s hard to stick with my view that we should soon see a reversal. Momentum is pushing extremes and it really made me look hard at the structure to make sure I’m not kidding myself. USDCHF is doing its best too and the momentum picture is pretty bullish too. However, it hasn’t made a new high yet.So I’m wondering to myself whether I have really got this wrong. There does seem to be an awful lot of Dollar bullish folk out there – or at least where I see comments – and with momentum so strong it would be churlish to ignore it. Indeed, as always we have to be aware of what happens if a view is incorrect.By the end of the analysis I was feeling a little more comfortable with my basic view. There are still things that can go wrong but GBPUSD worked like a dream yesterday and unless we see too much more in the way of losses the structure I have been following is holding rock solid and this still points higher…And while I do think we’re going to see the Dollar make gains I also feel we are close to a more sustainable correction. The 1.4014-38 area looks supportive in EURUSD while the 1.0506-18 area looks like holding in USDCHF. Both areas look like they can generate decent corrections and enough to bring momentum back under control – then we’ll have to watch the subsequent follow-through.I’m a bit concerned on EURJPY but for the other two JPY crosses I see potential for gains, clearly GBPJPY riding on the back of GBPUSD but AUDJPY hit a key support yesterday and has bounced too. The only issue I have is that AUDUSD seems to have a little more to go on the downside and thus there is a suggestion we’ll see USDJPY higher. However, I can’t see the latter getting above 92.24…So overall, while I see some room for minor follow-through in the Dollar’s rally in the first half of the day I feel that by the second half we’ll see a decent pullback that should last through to tomorrow at least and possibly see the Dollar begin to rally into the weekend.Today’s free analysis is for USDCHF and can be found on http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.html along with yesterday’s trade set up reports (+20 pips) and the review of the support & resistance levels issued in the daily report and FX-forecaster Trader Package.Good luckFor MT4 users
